With the conclusion of the presidential and National Assembly elections, focus has shifted to the upcoming governorship and state Houses of Assembly elections on March 11, 2023, which have been postponed to March 18th.
The stakes in gubernatorial and state House of Assembly elections are no less high than in presidential elections because the races are often exciting as candidates try to outdo one another.
These elections have historically been more violent than their national counterparts because they give citizens the opportunity to elect those who will lead their respective states’ affairs for the next four years.
In this article, we examine the governorship elections in seven states, as some of the states’ leading political figures vie for the top positions of being named chief executives in their respective domains.
Analysts believe that the contest in these states will be tough and intense due to a variety of factors, including the candidates’ profiles, incumbency, voter polarization, and ethno-religious considerations.
Here are four states to keep an eye on in Nigeria’s upcoming governorship elections:
Lagos
According to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in the 2023 elections, Nigeria’s former seat of power has 7,060,195 registered voters, the most in the Federation.
Lagos is undoubtedly one of the most important states to keep an eye on ahead of the gubernatorial election. The state’s political dynamics are rapidly shifting from a dominant one-party affair to the rise of formidable challengers as a result of the unusual rise in ethnic tensions in Nigeria’s leading cosmopolitan city.
The heavy loss in the state by the state’s political strongman and godfather, Bola Tinubu, in the presidential election a few weeks ago is another impetus for the opposition to challenge for power.
Even though it appears that the mood in the state is strongly in favor of a change of guard in Alausa, some analysts believe that the current governor of the state, Babajide Sanwo-performance Olu’s in the area of infrastructure development may give him an edge over his opponents.
Almost every pundit is paying close attention to the upcoming Lagos gubernatorial election.
Since 2007, the governorship elections in the state have largely been dominated by a single political party.
Kaduna
It’s difficult to discuss Nigerian politics without mentioning Kaduna. When it comes to politics, it is unrivaled. According to some analysts, if you can’t get what you want politically in Kaduna, you might never get it.
Mallam Nasir el-Rufai, the state’s outgoing governor, is known for being ruthless when dealing with the opposition. The former FCT Minister did the unthinkable when he chose Mrs Hadiza Balarabe, a Muslim, as his running mate in 2019 in a state with a sizable Christian population. This has understandably reawakened some old ethno-religious grievances historically associated with the state.
Things may not be looking good for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), which has just lost a presidential election in the state for the first time in eight years.
Rivers
It was dubbed the “Rivers of Blood” for a time, and the state has since become synonymous with electoral violence. Rotimi Amaechi and Nyesom Wike have shaped the state’s political landscape since 2013. The two will meet again as they attempt to outdo each other in the gubernatorial election.
Siminalayi Fubara of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) will face Tonye Cole of the APC. The APC was barred from presenting candidates in the state four years ago due to judicial injunctions.
While it is true that the APC won the state’s presidential election for the first time in its history, analysts noted that this was only possible due to serious infighting within the PDP, with Wike leading the G-5 governors against the party’s presidential candidate. Despite the fact that Wike has won every major political battle in the state against Amaechi since 2015, it remains to be seen whether Amaechi’s camp can spring a major surprise during the election.
 Adamawa
Senator Aisha Ahmed Binani of the APC appears to have overshadowed Adamawa politics this campaign season. She faces a difficult task in unseating the PDP’s incumbent governor, Umaru Fintiri.
Binani is the first female candidate to fly the gubernatorial flag of a major political party in eight years, following Senator Aisha Al-Hassan (Mama Taraba), who won the Taraba APC in 2014.
Interestingly, the biggest impediment to Binani’s ambition is not Fintiri, as the First Lady, Aisha Buhari, and other key stakeholders in the APC reportedly put pressure on party leadership in a plot to replace Binani with the former chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Mallam Nuhu Ribadu.
This development triggered a series of lawsuits that culminated in the highest courts in the land.