… continuation of an earlier article
President Buhari’s Style
President Muhammadu Buhari, though he won’t be on the ballot, will be instrumental for either of the parties in the 2023 presidential election. His style may make or mar the chances of APC or give the opposition the critical advantage in 2023. As a result, there have been speculations that he is not in full support of Tinubu.
There are undeniable reports that some people in the president’s kitchen cabinet are secretly funding Atiku to allow power to remain in the North. In the midst of the crisis in the PDP, Nyesom Wike, Governor of Rivers, had alleged that some of Buhari’s men were actually not backing Tinubu.
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Several of Atiku’s foot soldiers are currently holding key positions in the Buhari administration.
A powerful figure in the Buhari administration, Mustapha visited Atiku. Even though the SGF denied the meeting had anything to do with politics or backing Atiku, his kinsman from Adamawa state, for 2023, the silence from Buhari’s spokespersons, especially Garba Shehu, has been interpreted politically in several quarters. Mallam Garba Shehu, is known for his undying loyalty to Atiku even though he serves as Senior Special Assistant to the President on Media and Publicity.
The Tinubu camp has also been reportedly playing cat and mouse as to whether or not to campaign with Buhari’s records during the presidential election.
President Buhari’s style, whether or not he decides to be active or passive as the 2023 presidential election approaches, will be a huge determinant of the outcome for both APC and PDP candidates.
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The Attitude of Women and Youths
The 2023 presidential election is likely to be decided by the (in)actions of women and youth in the electoral process. With increasing mentions of socio-economic factors, this class of voters may confirm recent studies that incumbent parties tend to lose popularity due to key domestic micro and macroeconomic variables, arising from an economic recession, inflation, unemployment, and corruption which make voters cheer or boo the government at the polls.
The fact that some core Northern voters rate the Buhari administration very low on socioeconomic indicators suggests that his administration may lose the “goodwill” it gained in 2015 among swing voters – mostly women and youths, in what appears to be a hotly contested 2023 election. Also, a deeper look at the results and turnouts for the 2019 presidential election suggests that there may be ample evidence to suggest that women and young people may be huge factors in the outcome.
Furthermore, there may be troubling signs of low voter turnout among women and youths, owing to strong socioeconomic discontent.
Concluded