With several Nigerians experiencing difficulties as a result of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)’s currency redesign and culminating naira scarcity, experts have noted an increased probability that the policy will derail tomorrow’s elections.
Some experts who spoke to QUEST TIMES at different times stated that the scarcity of the naira will not deter politicians from engaging in graft and corruption, which is a deterrent target of the policy, while others stated the contrary.
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Dr. Abimbola Oyarinu, a research fellow at the Institute of African and Diaspora Studies, University of Lagos, told QUEST TIMES that the policy may have given “unstructured parties a chance in the election on Saturday” due to its unpopular undertone.
There are fears among the All Progressives Congress (APC) supporters that if the Naira scarcity persists, the ruling party will struggle to win Saturday’s election. “The PDP may seize on this issue to paint us as out of touch or ineffective, which could sway voters to support a change at the federal level,” said a member of the APC presidential campaign council who did not want his identity revealed.
“The irony is that they’ve managed to persuade [President Muhammadu] Buhari to do their bidding. Why didn’t Buhari bother with vote buying in 2019? If he was concerned about vote buying, why are they accusing Asiwaju [Bola Tinubu] of bullion van in 2019?”
A political strategist with the APC secretariat told QUEST TIMES that the naira’s scarcity is actually a blessing for the party. According to him, “Naira scarcity would make it difficult for many Nigerians to get to their polling units or pay for transportation to get there. This could lead to lower voter turnout, which could influence the outcome of the election in our favor.”
He said further, “It will have no effect on APC’s chances. Vote buying is not the same as buying tomatoes and peppers in the market square. They used electronic bank transfers to pay polling agents and voters, as did the PDP in the Osun gubernatorial election. The task was completed. When electronic transfers are available, who needs cash to win elections?”
This appears to be consistent with the position of two economists from the University of Coimbra and University of Minho, Rodrigo Martins and Francisco José Veiga, who maintain that incumbent parties value low voter turnout in elections, particularly during economic downturns.
Dr. Ferdinand Ottoh, a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Political Science at the University of Lagos, thinks that the policy will have a negligible effect on voter turnout. “I doubt it will have an effect on voter turnout,” he said in an interview with QUEST TIMES. “You do not need cash to vote in your polling place. If it has any effect on turnout, it will be very minimal.”
“If the intention is to limit vote buying, then it [naira redesign policy] is a good development,” Dr. Ottoh says. “Those who have stack money [cash] in their private homes will be unable to use it in the election,” he said.
Analysts such as Oyarinu believe that the policy will have a negative impact on foreign exchange because politicians may be forced to use currencies such as dollars to buy votes, which means that the “Naira may fall further due to the pressure of demand for the dollar because politicians have found a way around the naira issue.”
According to experts, the naira redesign will have an impact on the election. “Despite the challenges posed by naira scarcity,” a Canada-based ICT expert said, “it will be critical for the Nigerian government and other stakeholders to take steps to ensure that the democratic process is transparent, free, and fair.”
In the run-up to Saturday’s presidential election, the camps of both leading candidates – Atiku Abubakar and Bola Tinubu – have sparred over the significance of the naira redesign and its attendant scarcity.
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Atiku, who is running on the PDP platform, has accused Tinubu, the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, of large-scale cash-laundering to influence voters ahead of Saturday’s election. Tinubu’s campaign also did respond. In a statement by Bayo Onanuga, Tinubu’s campaign spokesperson, had said Atiku was “working in cahoots with Fifth Columnists to inflict avoidable pains on them for a sinister political end” over the naira redesign.