A new report by SB Morgen Intelligence paints a grim picture for Nigeria, suggesting that over 26 million people will grapple with severe food scarcity between June and August 2024.
The hardest-hit areas are anticipated to be in the Northwest and Northeast regions of the country.
What the Report Reveals
The report cautions that approximately 11.5 percent of Nigeria’s population, roughly 26.5 million individuals, will confront Crisis—Phase 3—levels of acute food insecurity during the peak of the upcoming lean season.
This period, from June to August, traditionally witnesses the most severe scarcity of food.
Within these figures, the Northwest states of Katsina, Sokoto, and Zamfara are expected to bear the brunt, with nearly 5.4 million people facing acute food shortages.
Similarly, the Northeastern states of Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe are projected to see around 4.4 million individuals grappling with food insecurity.
Causes of the Impending Food Crisis
The report identifies the escalating extortion tactics employed by bandits as a significant factor contributing to the impending food crisis.
Bandits, particularly active in the Northwest and Northeast regions, have resorted to imposing pre-harvest fees on local farmers.
This extortion has significantly hampered farmers’ productivity, exacerbating the food shortage.
Instead of imposing fixed rates, bandits have resorted to levying fees based on harvest volumes, intensifying the financial burden on already struggling farmers.
This strategy, akin to taxation, is closely linked to the bandits’ quest for territorial control and increased revenue.
As farmers face mounting pressure and financial strain, many may opt to abandon farming altogether in search of alternative livelihoods. This abandonment could further empower bandit groups, enabling them to seize additional territory and exacerbate the already precarious food security situation.