The people of Kogi, Imo and Bayelsa states will tomorrow troop out to elect new governors. Among the three states, only Kogi will get a brand new governor as the incumbent, Yahaya Bello is completing his two terms of eight years.
The current governors of Imo and Bayelsa are seeking reelection and may be returned if they triumph in the highly-anticipated exercise.
Overall, the major factors that will shape the election are the level of preparedness and impartiality of the electoral umpire, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), neutrality and effectiveness of the security agencies and voter apathy or large turnout on the part of the electorates.
Many Nigerians are yet to forgive INEC for the ignoble role it played in the crisis that trailed the 2023 general elections. Analysts expect INEC to use these off-cycle elections in the three states to redeem its image.
KOGI
18 Political parties are participatingÂ
It is a contest between four major political parties, APC, PDP, ADC and SDP. Dino Melaye of PDP and Usman Ododo of APC are clear favorites to win.
The three major tribes in Kogi State constitute the three senatorial districts – the Igalas in Kogi East, Ebira in Kogi Central and the Okun people from West.
- Among the four leading candidates, Ododo who is from Kogi Central is the only Ebira man in the race, meaning, Ebira would give him a bloc votes. The story is different for other candidates in the race.
- Ododo will be banking on the support of the incumbent governor and APC’s position as the ruling party. Federal might from the ruling APC may also be in his favour. However, there is a belief in Kogi that voting for him is more or less giving a third term to Yahaya Bello.
- Also Yahaya Bello’s performance has been less than satisfactory. Rev. Father Kukah in a recent interview described him as bad advertisement for youths.
- Melaye is an Okun man from Kogi West. The Okuns have been agitating that after eight years rule by the Ebira (Yahaya Bello), power should shift to them.
- The recent endorsement of Melaye by Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan of Kogi Central is seen as a huge plus for Melaye because the area is considered to be a stronghold of APC. Natasha enjoys huge popularity in the district and it is believed that the voters may listen to her by voting for the PDP.
- However, Melaye’s votes will be shared by another Okun man, Leke Abejide, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) candidate who is a serving House of Representatives member, representing Yagba Federal Constituency. Like Dino, he also commands a huge followership in the district.
- Abejide’s party is also popular in the area. In the last general elections, ADC won two of the three federal constituencies and one state assembly seat while the PDP won nothing.
- One factor that may work against Melaye is his antecedents. Many see him as an ostentatious and unserious fellow who should not be entrusted with the task of managing a state.
- Another factor militating against Melaye is the PDP primary which many stakeholders believed was rigged in his favour. Some of the party members have dumped the party.
Imo
Four horse race between APC (ruling party), PDP, Labour Party and APGA.
- Governor Hope Uzodimma is seeking a renewal of his mandate. But some Imolites believe he has no mandate in the first place as he was not voted for by the majority in the 2019 elections. They believe he was foisted on them by the Supreme Court.
- Uzodimma is also relying on Federal might and APC’s position as the ruling party in the State.
- However, the governor may be in for a hard time workers in the state have threatened not to vote for him owing to the manhandling of the NLC chairman, Joe Ajaero.
- Also, the entrance of the Labour Party, influence of Peter Obi and the performance of Governor Alex Otti may pose a major threat to Uzodimma’s reelection bid.
- In 2020, the people of the state had sympathy for the PDP when Emeka Ihedioha was removed by the Supreme Court but that love for PDP has greatly diminished with the coming of Obi and LP.
Bayelsa
With just eight local government, the governorship election in Bayelsa is strictly a two-horse race between the PDP and APC.
- Like his counterpart in Imo, Governor Douye Diri of PDP was pronounced the governor after the governor-elect, David Lyon was removed following discrepancies in the certificate of his running mate.
- Diri faces a strong challenge in the APC candidate, Timipre Sylva, a former governor of the state and immediate past Minister of State for Petroleum. Aside, federal might, Sylva has what it takes to match Diri power for power, money for money.
- LP is not a force to reckon with in Bayelsa.Six out of the eight Labour Party chairmen in the local government areas of Bayelsa State have dumped the party’s governorship candidate, Udengs Eradiri, over the alleged exclusion of the party executives and structure in his governorship campaign.
- The Party Chairmen, Super Kworkwor (Yenagoa), Ifiemi Ilahnyog (Southern Ijaw), Clinton Naru Emesua (Ogbia), Tamuno Deifugha (Kolokuma/Opokuma), Warri Moses (Sagbama) and Appi Ebierelayefa Stephen (Nembe), also accused the party’s candidate of deliberately refusing to inaugurate campaign council.
- It has also been alleged that Eradiri is fronting for the PDP candidate, Douye Diri.